The American League Wild Card Race

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The wild card situation is odd. When the spots were added, traditionalists were outraged while the supporters claimed that it was the right thing to do since sometimes there were great teams missing the playoffs because they had a division rival with a better record. Since it has been implemented in 1995, four wild card teams have won the World Series, most recently with the 2004 Red Sox and has been just another mark of the Bud Selig era, angering traditionalists while pleasing some “modern” fans. Even though there is talk of another wild card spot to give teams in the AL East a break (they have the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays), this year there is only one per league and a team in the AL East will most likely take the wild card, with the Yankees taking the final playoff spot

I don’t think that anybody that is sane expects a team not in the AL East to get the wild card. Yes, that’s a double negative, but think about it. With the poor performance from the Minnesota Twins this year, the AL East boasts three of the best four American League teams in the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, with only the Rangers from the west rounding out the top four. Overall, I’d rank the teams Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, and Rays, although I think you can make a case for any of the first three to be at the top. The Rangers have a two game lead over the Angels for the AL West crown, but are four games behind the Yankees, who are sitting in second place behind Boston.

Really, I’m not sure how the Angels are still in the race, but they could try to copy the 2001 Diamondbacks duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson with Dan Haren and Jered Weaver, but I don’t think that will happen. Although they both were phenomenal in the first half, especially Weaver with his sub-2.00 earned-run average, Haren is known to be better in the first half than second and Weaver’s peripherals show he has the tools to do what he’s doing but with the exception of the ERA part. Weaver’s lowest qualified ERA was his 3.01 mark last year, and obviously that number is not 1.78, but back to the Angels, I think if they end up taking the division it will be because of a Rangers collapse or an extreme hot streak.

I think the Rangers are the X-factor in the race, controlling the race. If they take the division, I think the Yankees will beat the Angels for the wild card, but if they don’t, the Yankees are in trouble. The Rangers didn’t make a move for a big bat at the trade deadline, but made their bullpen even better with the addition of Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. Their rotation with C.J. Wilson, Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and 2011-breakout Matt Harrison is definitely deep enough for a playoff run but you never know with injuries, which could possibly be the Achilles’’ heel of this team. Stars Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton are frequently on the DL and the Rangers’ lineup is quite weak without those two bats. I think the American League West is theirs for the taking, but I don’t see them getting the wild card because they have to be pretty sloppy to lose the division.

The Boston Red Sox have an interesting situation. With the emergence of Josh Reddick in the outfield, the Red Sox continue to strengthen their lineup (although one could argue they weakened it with the addition of Carl Crawford) and are possibly strong at every position except for shortstop, where they are slightly above average with their Jed Lowrie/Marco Scutaro platoon. What will make the difference for the rest of the year is the rotation, where the role of the third starter is in question. Obviously, Josh Beckett will be the #1 with his great comeback numbers this year, and leukemia-survivor and no-hitter-thrower Jon Lester as the #2, there is no clear number three. The Sox have Tim Wakefield, who has been a much-needed help this year, former phenom Andrew Miller, the now-injured Clay Buchholz, newly acquired Erik Bedard, and John Lackey, who has proved how much he was not worth his contract two years ago. I think Miller is definitely out of the question, Wakefield will be limited to long relief because he is a 45-year old knuckleballer, and I’m not sure about Buchholz’s status with his injury and if and when he will return this year. That leaves Bedard and Lackey. This is more playoffs than wild card race, but if the Red Sox draw the Yankees during the playoffs, Lackey will be in the rotation, especially after his recent performance against the Bombers. He out-pitched CC Sabathia, and has been great against New York, a trait that means he could have a positive future with the Red Sox after all, but Bedard, the former ace of the Baltimore Orioles, has had a good overall year so far while Lackey and his 6.14 ERA have not. The key for the Red Sox’ playoff hopes is to find who they want playing in the meaningful games, and if they can do that and make the right decisions, they will make the playoffs, most likely with the AL East title.
I am doing the Yankees last because this is on the wild card, and I think the Yankees have the best shot at it. Why? They didn’t make any big moves at the non-waiver trade deadline, and they have put together a good, although unlikely rotation. Among the unlikely are former-Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova. They are joined by ace CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. There was a big question mark in spring training about who would close out the Yankees after Sabathia, Burnett, and Phil Hughes, but Colon, Garcia, and Nova have taken advantage of Phil Hughes surprisingly poor performance this season and have take advantage to the fullest, each making at least 20 starts and all having earned-run averages of 3.85 and under. Also, with the continuing troubles of Joba Chamberlain and this season Rafael Soriano, David Robertson has been invaluable to them with his 1.38 ERA and 13.99 K/BB ratio. The biggest reason that I think the Yankees will win the wild card is that they are good, but simply not as good as the Boston Red Sox. They lost to the Rangers in the ALCS last season, but I strongly think Texas’s bullpen acquisitions will lead them to the AL West crown. In other words, the Yankees are good, but not too good.
I do think the Yankees will get the wild card, but here are a few interesting situations:
Yankees go really hot, along with Angels, bypass Red Sox and Rangers. Advantage Red Sox. Although I think the Rangers are more equipped for the playoffs, I think it will simply come down to management. I respect Ron Washington and he is one of the best managers in the game today, but you got to think that Terry Francona will be higher on that list. You have to account for how hot the Red Sox have been since their 2-10 start in April, and when the Red Sox are healthy and playing well they can be the best team in the majors.
Yankees vs. Rangers.
Rangers win because of the Yankees rotation. I was just talking about how great it has been, but Sabathia and Burnett won’t cut it. The reason that their mediocre pitching goes unnoticed is that the Yankees score a lot of runs. Really, Burnett has a 4.60 ERA and like Lackey, has proven to his club that he is not an elite pitcher deserving of a huge contract. I think I’m also not giving the Rangers enough credit for their World Series appearance and how well they’ve done without Cruz and Hamilton when they are out and in the offseason picking up Mike Napoli. Like the Rangers didn’t have enough power already. Anyway, the Rangers are a good team and I think the only team that could keep Texas from a playoff spot is the Red Sox (and technically the Angels if they overtake Nolan Ryan’s club in the division).

I didn’t mention the Rays because there is an extremely small chance that they could overtake either of their division opponents for a playoff spot.